How Scores Work

Plain-English methodology for watch-only options intelligence confidence scores.

Scoring methodology
Confidence Score

Catalyst Options blends institutional-style options flow, stock participation, momentum, catalyst strength, and sentiment into a simple 0-100 confidence score for retail traders. The score is for educational analytics only and does not place trades or provide financial advice.

Bias

Bullish, bearish, or neutral bias is calculated separately using price momentum, catalyst sentiment, and whether the options flow is call-heavy or put-heavy.

Risk

Event risk and elevated IV are surfaced as warnings so traders can understand when signals may be more volatile or more expensive to monitor.

The five factors

Options flow

Unusual options volume compared with normal activity, supported by volume/OI, IV rank, put/call ratio, sweeps, and blocks. The heaviest input.

Relative stock volume

Confirms whether the underlying stock is seeing enough participation to support the signal.

Momentum

Checks whether price action is moving with enough force to confirm the options activity.

Catalyst

Scores the strength of news, earnings, macro, analyst, or event-driven context.

Sentiment

Adds directional context from the catalyst tone. The lightest input.

AI Explanation Layer

The AI explainer converts the scored signal into retail-friendly language: why it matters, what to watch, and what risks deserve attention. All explanation copy must stay watch-only.

Limitations

The MVP uses mock/provider-placeholder data and should be calibrated with historical outcomes before any production use with live market providers.