Three trading days after a signal, we compare the stock's move to the market (SPY) over the same window. If the stock beat the market by at least 2% in the direction the lean said, the signal is confirmed. If it moved at least 2% the other way, it faded. Anything in between — or a signal with no lean — is neutral.
The hit rate on the Analytics tab is confirmed ÷ (confirmed + faded): the share of decisive moves that went the lean's way. Neutral outcomes are left out. It grades the lean only — the confidence score measures activity, not direction, and is never graded on it.
Related terms
- Bias (bullish / bearish / neutral) — Our read of which way the flow leans. Context, not a guarantee.
- Confidence / activity score — A 0–100 measure of how MUCH is happening on a ticker. Not a probability the trade works.
See it in the flow
Open the dashboard to watch real options flow free, or read the beginner guides. Watch-only — not financial advice.